Illusion in medicine: the case for the Elliott Wave Principle.
A review of infectious diseases and other conditions, as reported over a period of months to many years, shows that our attempt to forecast peaks and troughs of disease activity fails more often than not. A technique used to discern and count rising and falling waves of disease activity (also employed in stock markets and known there as the Elliott Wave Principle) provides a novel approach for better understanding of outbreaks of disease and the attitude of health professionals in response. Thirteen figures demonstrate the approach in action.
Plaut
M E
ME
Department of Medicine, State University of New York, Buffalo 14214.
D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004739:England; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005544:Forecasting; D006505:Hepatitis / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D006967:Hypersensitivity / Q000453:epidemiology; D007564:Japan; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009080:Mucocutaneous Lymph Node Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology; D009107:Mumps / Q000453:epidemiology; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology; D011051:Poliomyelitis / Q000453:epidemiology; D012480:Salmonella Infections / Q000453:epidemiology; D014481:United States; D014917:Whooping Cough / Q000453:epidemiology