title: An application of the Markov process for quantitative prediction of labor progress.
abstract: To quantitatively predict the progress of labor, we devised a mathematical model suitable for the Markov process. Included were 625 primiparas who went into spontaneous labor between 37 and 41 weeks of gestation with a cephalic presentation. When applying the Markov process, the sequence of labor was divided into eight categories from 4 cm cervical dilatation to delivery of the baby. Based on all data collected, a transition matrix was calculated, using a microcomputer system, in which the value in each element showed the percent of probability of progression in labor from one given state to another over a 30-minute period. This matrix was found to be available for evaluating the course of labor in clinical practise with a good predictive value and therefore the Markov process could be confirmed to be actually applicable as an analytical model.
authors.affiliation: Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Faculty of Medicine, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Nagamatsu
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Koyanagi
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Hirose
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Nakahara
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Nakano
mesh_terms: D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007743:Labor, Obstetric / Q000502:physiology*; D008492:Medical Informatics Computing; D011247:Pregnancy; D011336:Probability