title: Prognostic index for acute abdominal crisis (colic) in horses.
abstract: Selected physical and laboratory findings in 29 horses with acute abdominal crisis were evaluated retrospectively with a logistic regression equation to predict survival or death. Of 17 variables examined, 2 were found to have good predictive correlation. Serum lactate and packed cell volume had a combined predictive value of 94%. Packed cell volume mean values of 43 and 50%, respectively, differentiated survival from death. Serum lactate values of 28.18 mg/dl and 51.28 mg/dl differentiated survival and death. Analysis of data from a previous study of 36 horses with the logistic regression equation predicted survival rate of 96% accuracy, further substantiating the statistical model.
authors.affiliation: Section of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania, School of Veterinary Medicine, Kennett Square 19348.
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Orsini
authors.forename: A H
authors.initials: AH
authors.lastname: Elser
authors.forename: D T
authors.initials: DT
authors.lastname: Galligan
authors.forename: W J
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Donawick
authors.forename: D S
authors.initials: DS
authors.lastname: Kronfeld
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000818:Animals; D001831:Body Temperature; D002118:Calcium / Q000097:blood; D002712:Chlorides / Q000097:blood; D003085:Colic / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000662:veterinary*; D006339:Heart Rate; D006400:Hematocrit / Q000662:veterinary; D006734:Horse Diseases / Q000175:diagnosis*; D006736:Horses; D007773:Lactates / Q000097:blood; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012964:Sodium / Q000097:blood
chemical_list: D002712:Chlorides; D007773:Lactates; D012964:Sodium; D002118:Calcium