title: Taking a calculated risk: predictive scoring systems in dyspepsia.
abstract: The derivation of a predictive index is illustrated using 14 simple questions to assess the chance of the presence of an ulcer. The evaluation and use of such a 'calculated-risk' is briefly described.
authors.forename: D J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Spiegelhalter
authors.forename: G P
authors.initials: GP
authors.lastname: Crean
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Holden
authors.forename: R P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Knill-Jones
mesh_terms: D003936:Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted / Q000379:methods*; D003937:Diagnosis, Differential; D004415:Dyspepsia / Q000175:diagnosis*; D005103:Expert Systems; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010437:Peptic Ulcer / Q000175:diagnosis; D011336:Probability