Refining intensive care unit outcome prediction by using changing probabilities of mortality.
Estimating prognosis is potentially useful as a measure of ICU performance and as a guide for the clinical care of individual patients. In this study, mortality prediction models (MPMs) for patients in an adult general medical-surgical ICU were derived from data gathered at ICU admission and after 24 and 48 h of ICU care. A predictive model was developed which incorporated a sequence of probabilities collected over time in the ICU. The results of this study suggest that using serial observations may enhance substantially the usefulness of the MPM as a vehicle for helping families anticipate the patients' likely outcome.
Lemeshow
S
S
Division of Public Health, School of Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
Teres
D
D
Avrunin
J S
JS
Gage
R W
RW
D006801:Humans; D007362:Intensive Care Units; D008499:Medical Records; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D009026:Mortality; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis