title: Epidemiological considerations of the present status and future growth of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome epidemic in South Africa.
abstract: Limited epidemiological data on acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection have been assembled by voluntarily reported AIDS figures, blood donor serum prevalence and high-risk sentinel population and random background population sero-prevalence studies. The HIV epidemic in South Africa can thus be shown to consist of four separate epidemics of which the heterosexual epidemic will undoubtedly constitute the major growth in this country. Intervention must be directed to shrinking the promiscuous core which sustains this epidemic by directing attention at female prostitution and limiting the reproductive rate of the epidemic by energetic and professionally directed education at an early stage of a child's school career. Sexually transmitted diseases will play a major role in the determination of the extent of the heterosexual epidemic.
authors.affiliation: Department of National Health and Population Development, National Institute for Virology, Johannesburg.
authors.forename: B D
authors.initials: BD
authors.lastname: Schoub
authors.forename: A N
authors.initials: AN
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: S F
authors.initials: SF
authors.lastname: Lyons
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Johnson
authors.forename: D J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Martin
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: McGillivray
authors.forename: G N
authors.initials: GN
authors.lastname: Padayachee
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Naidoo
authors.forename: E L
authors.initials: EL
authors.lastname: Fisher
authors.forename: H S
authors.initials: HS
authors.lastname: Hurwitz
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D000353:Africa, Southern; D001741:Black or African American; D044383:Black People; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006679:HIV Seropositivity / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D013019:South Africa; D044465:White People