title: Enhanced specificity of prognosis in severe head injury.
abstract: Data from 523 patients admitted to the Medical College of Virginia with severe head injury and known 6-month outcomes were analyzed in order to determine the optimal combination of early-available prognostic factors. Twenty-one prognostic indicators noted in the emergency room at admission were used to predict outcomes into four categories: good, moderately disabled, severely disabled, or vegetative/dead. A combination of the patient's age (in years), the best motor response (graded in the usual six-point scale), and pupillary response (in both eyes) was found to be the most accurate indicator. The model correctly predicted outcome into one of the four outcome categories in 78% of cases ("specifically accurate predictions"). If predictions into an outcome category adjacent to the actual outcome were accepted, this model was accurate in 90% of cases ("grossly accurate predictions"). A set of three simple graphs based on this model can be used for rapid early estimation of probable outcome in a severely head-injured patient at admission.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Medical College of Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond.
authors.forename: S C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Choi
authors.forename: R K
authors.initials: RK
authors.lastname: Narayan
authors.forename: R L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Anderson
authors.forename: J D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Ward
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001930:Brain Injuries / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009068:Movement; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011680:Pupil / Q000503:physiopathology