title: [Assessment of prognosis with Markov chains in chronic cardiovascular diseases in relation to various therapies].
abstract: On the basis of 5-years intervention results concerning chronic heart and vessel diseases of a check, which is representative for approx. 280.000 inhabitants of defined territories (EBMO-Cor Berlin), the prognose for the time of 5 and 10 years were estimated. It refers to ambulantories with the diagnosis hypertension and coronary heart disease, who were treated in a different way. The fundamental idea was to extract a prognostic index to make possible a choice of the treatment, adequate to the specific disease and its severe degrees, free of chance. The basic requirement of the application of the "Markoff-model" was the evidence of homogeneity concerning transition of severe degrees, used as reference, which was proved by means of the 2-k-chi 2-Felder-test. By using a starting vector of 1000 patients in each case inquiries about the distribution to the severe degrees had been made. The so achieved results illustrate a therapy-dependent susceptibility of these (morphologically defined) population suffering from a heart disease and allow a forecast, estimated also for a longer period, about the extent of the transition of a respecting and with the possibilities of the outpatient practice defined severe degrees of a heart and circulation disease and with that about chance and risk of a patient. By means of the epidemiological reference of the study the result gains special importance for outpatient practice.
authors.affiliation: Institut für Medizinische Statistik und Datenverarbeitung, DDR Berlin-Buch.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Grimm
authors.forename: W E
authors.initials: WE
authors.lastname: Hempel
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Gerst
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Richter
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Hempel
mesh_terms: D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000628:therapy*; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000628:therapy; D005859:Germany, East; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000628:therapy; D008390:Markov Chains; D011379:Prognosis
vernacular_title: Prognoseabschätzung mit Markoff-Ketten bei chronischen Herz-Kreislauf-Krankheiten in Abhängigkeit von Therapievarianten.