Dynamic models for the maintenance of smoking cessation: event history analysis of late relapse.
This paper presents event history analysis as an approach to examining the dynamic nature of the maintenance of smoking cessation. Data from a 1-year follow-up of 172 adult male and 209 adult female ex-smokers is used to estimate the rate at which individuals relapse and return to abstinence. Results indicate that the rate of relapse in both males and females (3.9 and 3.6% per month, respectively) is roughly half that of the rate of return to abstinence (7.5 and 6.3% per month, respectively). No evidence was found for a "safe point" during the observation interval. Individual characteristics that affect the rate at which ex-smokers relapse and return to abstinence are identified. Characteristics that influenced the rate of return to abstinence were completely different from those affecting the rate of relapse, a finding that suggests covariate asymmetry. Implications of dynamic analysis for conceptualizations of maintenance are discussed.
Health Science Program, SRI International, Menlo Park, California 94025.
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GE
Swan
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CE
Denk
D001521:Behavior Therapy / Q000379:methods*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D012008:Recurrence; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000523:psychology / Q000628:therapy*