Scheduling mammograms for asymptomatic women.
A decision theoretic model was used to investigate the relative importance of risk level, radiation hazard, mammographic accuracy, and cost in mammographic screening decision. The model uses woman-specific medical and family history facts and clinic-specific information regarding mammographic accuracy and practice to profile both woman and clinic, and to formulate periodic screening recommendations. Model parameters were varied extensively to investigate the sensitivity of screening schedules to input values. Multivariate risk was estimated within the program using published data from the Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project 5-year follow-up study. Radiation hazard estimates were developed from published radiation physics and radioepidemiologic risk data. Benchmark values for mammographic sensitivity and specificity under screening conditions were calculated from Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project data. Procedural costs used in the analysis were varied around values reflecting conditions at the Washington University Medical Center. Mortality advantages of early versus late breast cancer detection were accounted for using Health Insurance Plan of New York case survival rates. Results are compared with published screening policies to provide insight into implicit assumptions behind those policies. This analysis emphasizes the importance of accounting for variations in clinical accuracy under screening circumstances, in costs, in radiation exposure, and in woman-specific risk when recommending mammographic screening.
Department of Preventive Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri 63110.
J K
JK
Gohagan
W P
WP
Darby
E L
EL
Spitznagel
A E
AE
Tome
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000465:Algorithms; D001071:Appointments and Schedules; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000517:prevention & control*; D003658:Decision Making, Computer-Assisted; D003951:Diagnostic Errors; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008327:Mammography / Q000191:economics; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011336:Probability; D011829:Radiation Dosage; D012307:Risk Factors