A model for evaluating the effect of son or daughter preference on population size.
This paper develops a micro probabilistic model to describe the family extension process. The parameters are: the probability that a newborn is a boy (P), the number of desired boys (B), the number of desired girls (G), and the maximum possible number of children (N). This maximum is a stopping rule rather than a biological maximum. The variables are the ultimate number of boys and girls. According to this model, each couple determines B, G, and N, at the beginning of the reproductive period and continues to reproduce until at least B and at least G are achieved, or until the total number of children reaches N. The probability distribution of the ultimate number of boys and girls in the population is derived for this model. Simulation techniques are used to generate offspring. The results showed that the population size increases with the absolute differences, [B-G] for fixed N. They also suggested that son or daughter preference may be an important factor in fertility determinants, which may have important implications in population policies.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio 44106.
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Osman
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Yamashita
D003198:Computer Simulation; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005193:Family Planning Services; D005260:Female; D007722:Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012744:Sex Ratio; D013269:Stochastic Processes