Predicting the dynamic effects of rubella vaccination programmes.
In the Netherlands, prepubertal girls have been vaccinated against rubella since 1974 (the UK strategy). Recently the Dutch Health Council advocated the introduction of an elimination strategy: vaccination of 1- and 9-year-old children. Dynamic effects of both strategies are studied using deterministic and stochastic models. Estimates of several epidemiological parameters are given. All computations and simulations were performed using as much field data as possible. Under the old strategy a new equilibrium is expected around the years 1995 to 2000; the new strategy is estimated to eliminate rubella (CRS) in large parts of the population 3 to 5 years after its initiation. Possible consequences of the new strategy on a cluster of people who refuse vaccination are investigated.
de Boo
T M
TM
Department of Statistical Consultation, University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
van Druten
J A
JA
Plantinga
A D
AD
D002648:Child; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009426:Netherlands; D012409:Rubella / Q000517:prevention & control*; D012411:Rubella Vaccine / Q000627:therapeutic use*
D012411:Rubella Vaccine