title: Identifying children who will experience high caries increments.
abstract: An 18-month longitudinal study of 197 5 to 18-yr-old children was conducted to assess the performance of multiple baseline variables in predicting which children would experience high increments of caries. Nine predictors were assessed; DMFS and defs scores, number of permanent teeth, indices of fissure retentiveness and occlusal morphology, S. mutans and lactobacilli levels, and sex and race. Discriminant analyses were applied to data for children in five age groups to identify the 30% who would have the largest 18-month DMFS increments. Prediction performance was assessed by comparisons with the actual high increment group, defined as those children with increments in the upper quartiles of the DMFS distributions within age groups. The analyses predicted between 56% and 91% of actual high increment children depending on age group. The children identified in the analyses experienced between 59% and 91% of the disease experienced by the actual high increment groups.
authors.forename: J D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Bader
authors.forename: R C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Graves
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Disney
authors.forename: H M
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Bohannan
authors.forename: J W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Stamm
authors.forename: J R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Abernathy
authors.forename: R L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Lindahl
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004245:DMF Index; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D003733:Dental Caries Susceptibility; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D012463:Saliva / Q000382:microbiology; D012737:Sex Factors; D013295:Streptococcus mutans / Q000302:isolation & purification; D014070:Tooth / Q000033:anatomy & histology