title: Grading scores and survivorship functions in liver cirrhosis: a comparative statistical analysis of various predictive models.
abstract: In a group of followed-up liver cirrhotics we evaluated the reliability of prognostic estimates predicted on the basis of a previously described multivariate statistical model (MSM). In the same subjects we also compared theoretical survival estimates obtained by fitting some other liver cirrhosis grading scores (Child-Turcotte's, McCormick's and Orrego's) to prognostic purposes. No statistical difference between actual and MSM-estimated survivorship functions was found (employing a life-table method with Logrank test), thus confirming the prognostic reliability of this multivariate classification model. Such a global and prognosis-correlated index may be recommendable both for comparing different groups of patients, and for assessing treatment effectiveness. Or results also substantially confirm the other investigated classificative methods such as reliable liver cirrhosis severity indexes, although their use for prognostic purposes seems to be less suitable.
mesh_terms: D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011379:Prognosis