title: The future of medicine. A scenario analysis. Council on Long Range Planning and Development.
abstract: The Council on Long Range Planning and Development has undertaken an analysis of the future of medicine. The purpose in undertaking this study was to examine how the changing environment might effect the AMA and to identify measures the AMA could take to ensure its success in the future. The study involved developing three scenarios that covered a broad range of possibilities for the future. Analysis of these scenarios indicated that the AMA could face some significant environmental threats in the future. In the opinion of the Council, a variety of factors could combine to erode the AMA's membership market share and reduce cooperation among Federation organizations. Consequently, the AMA will have to develop an active response to environmental change to success and thrive in the future. The Council analyzed how the AMA might best respond to environmental change. The AMA could intensify its efforts to guide the course of environmental change. Such efforts would be worth undertaking, but they do not represent a complete solution. Therefore, the AMA must change itself to succeed in the future. The Council analyzed a number of alternative models of the AMA, each representing changes in product mix and/or organizational structure. None of these models provide a solution to environmental change. Rather, the solution lies primarily in program and activity changes. The Council identified specific suggestions for changes in the AMA's activities, organizational structure, and finances. If these suggestions are implemented, they will help the AMA succeed in the emerging environment. After completing its study of the future of medicine, the Council concluded that the need for the AMA will persist in the future. The market for the Association's products and services will remain strong. By taking steps today, the AMA can position itself to benefit from the emerging environment and, thereby, ensure that the Association has a positive future.
mesh_terms: D000574:American Medical Association / Q000458:organization & administration; D003695:Delivery of Health Care / Q000458:organization & administration / Q000639:trends*; D004470:Economics, Medical / Q000639:trends*; D005544:Forecasting; D014481:United States