Forecasting parasitic gastroenteritis in lambs.
Incorporating estimated temperature data and assuming non-limiting rainfall, a simulation model was used to compare forecast and actual pasture counts of sheep nematode larvae over a 2-year period. The results indicate that the first possible date of the summer larval rise can be predicted up to 6 weeks in advance of its actual occurrence, enabling control measures to be planned and implemented. Rainfall variation had a marked effect on the degree of disparity between the predicted and actual timing of the rise, indicating the importance of this factor.
D000818:Animals; D005759:Gastroenteritis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000662:veterinary*; D007411:Intestinal Diseases, Parasitic / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000662:veterinary*; D007814:Larva / Q000254:growth & development; D008954:Models, Biological; D010028:Ostertagia / Q000254:growth & development*; D010029:Ostertagiasis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000662:veterinary*; D011891:Rain; D012756:Sheep; D012757:Sheep Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D013696:Temperature; D014252:Trichostrongyloidiasis / Q000662:veterinary*