title: Mycoplasma meleagridis of turkeys: probability of eliminating egg-borne infection.
abstract: An equation was developed that describes the probability of eliminating egg-borne Mycoplasma meleagridis (MM) of turkeys by egg treatment. Probability (P) of MM elimination was described in terms of four parameters: pretreatment prevalence of MM, alpha; treatment failure rate, beta; number of eggs treated, n; and hatching rate, h. The eradication equation, based on the Poisson probability distribution, was P(0) = e-n alpha beta h. Probabilities derived from 12 hypothetical MM-eradication situations showed that increasing the size of any or all of the parameters decreased the likelihood of eradication. Use of the predictive equation as a planning tool in a successful MM-eradication program is demonstrated.
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D005260:Female; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D009175:Mycoplasma Infections / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary*; D010063:Ovum / Q000382:microbiology; D011201:Poultry Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control*; D011336:Probability; D014422:Turkeys