The assessment of nonroutine situations by pilots: a two-part process.
A pilot encountering a nonroutine event must make a decision based on what may often result from a two-part process. The first is the diagnosis of the nature of the nonroutine event (Assessment A), followed by a determination of the potential consequences of that event (Assessment B). Analyses of aircraft accidents and incidents show that overestimation or underestimation in Assessment B can be a serious determinant of pilot misjudgment, even though Assessment A was entirely accurate.
Simmel
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EC
Dept. of Psychology, Miami University, Oxford, OH 45056.
Shelton
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D000060:Accidents, Aviation / Q000517:prevention & control; D003657:Decision Making; D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D011340:Problem Solving; D013026:Space Flight