title: Prediction of coronary events following myocardial infarction using a discriminant function analysis.
abstract: This study was undertaken to derive an index for predicting coronary events in the first year after a myocardial infarction in "low-risk" patients enrolling in a Cardiac Rehabilitation Program. Data from 145 consecutive patients were analysed. The events were classified as follows: angina requiring further therapy, re-infarction and coronary death. Seventy patients had events: Angina--52, Re-infarction--8, Coronary Death--10. A discriminant function analysis was performed to predict such events using data available at the time of discharge from hospital. The following were significant predictors: (1) previous infarction/angina, (2) radiological evidence of cardiomegaly or lung congestion in the Coronary Care Unit, (3) Non-Q wave infarction and (4, 5 and 6) angina, atrial arrhythmias and a decrease in R wave amplitude in V5 during a pre-discharge exercise test. The jack-knife method classified correctly 71.2% of those with events and 72.6% of those without events. In patients with discriminant scores greater than +0.2, 82% developed events.
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000789:Angina, Unstable / Q000209:etiology; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000209:etiology* / Q000503:physiopathology; D004562:Electrocardiography; D005080:Exercise Test; D005260:Female; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000209:etiology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000150:complications* / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000534:rehabilitation; D011379:Prognosis; D012008:Recurrence; D013223:Statistics as Topic