title: The fourth stage of the epidemiologic transition: the age of delayed degenerative diseases.
abstract: Gains in longevity in the United States since the mid-nineteenth century occurred as a result of an epidemiologic transition: deaths from infectious diseases were replaced by deaths from degenerative diseases. Recent trends in cause-specific mortality suggest a distinct new stage, one of postponement of degenerative diseases. Projections based on these data must be applied cautiously; their implication for health and social policies are likely to be profound.
mesh_terms: D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D000367:Age Factors; D002908:Chronic Disease / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality*; D004813:Epidemiology / Q000639:trends*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008136:Longevity; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009017:Morbidity; D011157:Population Dynamics; D014481:United States; D014798:Vital Statistics