title: Prediction of stable high blood pressure in adolescents.
abstract: We studied the relative importance of the initial BP and associated factors in adolescents to predict stable high BP. Out of 17,634 children aged 12-13 yrs an upper group/the upper 5% of the distribution curves for both SBP and DBP/a lower group/10% random from the remainder/were yearly followed for 4 yrs/boys: 1680, girls: 1643/. About 2/3 of children remained at the same percentile point: less than 30% and greater than or equal to 70% of SBP and half of them of DBP distribution. Significant positive tracking correlations were found both for SBP and DBP between the initial BP and follow-up BP readings in the same individual. Stepwise regression analysis showed that the SBP taken at the fourth follow-up can be explained by 29% in boys, 24% in girls on the basis of screening SBP and by 47% in boys, 42% in girls on the basis of SBP measured at the four previous examinations. Using discriminant analysis, 6-9 variables out of 18 studied could correctly allocate adolescents with stable SBP or DBP/less than 70% or greater than or equal to 70% at least 3 examinations/. Our study shows the importance of initial BP and a number of factors associated with stable high BP.
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D001794:Blood Pressure; D002648:Child; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D012044:Regression Analysis