[Operative assessment of the influenza situation based on a complex accounting of standardized indices of incidence and data on rapid diagnosis].
The paper described a method allowing most objective and operative evaluation of the influenza situation in the autumn-winter period, the detection of the onset of influenza epidemic in a given population area, and characterization of the intensity of the epidemic. The development of a more accurate method of operative evaluation of the influenza situation is necessary because influenza is one of widely prevalent virus diseases which still plays a significant role in human pathology and simultaneously takes away from productive labor tremendous numbers of workers. Follow-up of the incidence levels is based on the idea of comparison of the actual data with standardized parameters. These parameters (incidence at the start week, the pace of epidemic increase, the critical seasonal coefficient) are calculated by weekly data of the basic period for a number of years for each town under study on the basis of comparison with the mean minimal level of influenza and ARD incidence (summer normal level) and also the use of mathematical statistics apparatus. To establish epidemiologically unfavourable situation it is necessary that operatively estimated current parameters (analogous with pre-calculated standardized ones) be equal to or exceeding the standardized parameters. The methods of rapid diagnosis are used additionally for identification of the etiology of the starting outbreak or epidemic. The use of the developed methods is exemplified in the paper by practical estimates of the influenza situation in Moscow in the seasons of 1983-1984 and 1984-1985.
D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D009980:Influenza A virus; D009981:Influenza B virus; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012141:Respiratory Tract Infections / Q000453:epidemiology; D012621:Seasons; D014586:USSR; D014505:Urban Population
Operativnaia otsenka situatsii po grippu na osnove kompleksnogo ucheta standartizovannykh pokazateleĭ zabolevaemosti i dannykh ékspress-diagnostiki.