[Experience in using cluster analysis and the prognosis of the stages of epizootic risk for Newcastle disease in poultry].
An attempt was made to use clastic analysis and projection of the steps of the epizootic hazard with regard to Newcastle disease. There were no records of the disease after 1982 but still it is the object of consideration on the part of specialists. A clastic analysis was made on the base of a factorial model of Newcastle disease in this country for the 1970-1979. Used was a programme already worked out and practised at the Pilot Computor Center of the Medical Academy, Sofia. The districts in the country were grouped in a dendogramme, 16 groups being distinguished out of a total of 27 districts. This showed that regardless of the small territory of the country the districts are sufficiently differing between each other (due to the various degrees of integration) so that they could not be grouped together by similar values of intensity of poultry breeding and epizootic conjuncture with regard to Newcastle disease. Districts of epizootic hazard ranging from 1st to 5th degree substantiate the use of a differential approach in building up the tactics of prophylaxis and control of the disease, while measures concerning the poultry dressing combines should be at a high level regardless of the category of the respective district. The grouping of neighboring districts on a territorial principle disclosed the existence of reasons of climatic-and-geographic nature that could predispose equal degrees of intensity of poultry breeding and epizootic hazard.
D000818:Animals; D002031:Bulgaria; D005163:Factor Analysis, Statistical; D008722:Methods; D009521:Newcastle Disease / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011200:Poultry; D011379:Prognosis; D012306:Risk; D012984:Software; D013223:Statistics as Topic
Opit za prilozhenie na klasteren analiz i prognoza za stepenite na epizootichen risk po otnoshenie na psevdochuma po ptitsite.