title: Nearly one dimensional dynamics in an epidemic.
abstract: The incidence of measles in New York City and Baltimore was studied using recently developed techniques in nonlinear dynamics. The data, monthly case reports for the years 1928-1963, suggest almost two dimensional, chaotic flows whose essential attributes are captured by one dimensional, unimodal maps. The effects of noise, inevitable in ecological and epidemiological systems are discussed.
mesh_terms: D002644:Chickenpox / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D008396:Maryland; D008457:Measles / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D009107:Mumps / Q000453:epidemiology; D009519:New York City; D010507:Periodicity; D013029:Space-Time Clustering