title: Prognosis in acquired aplastic anemia.
abstract: To study prognostic factors 38 consecutive patients with aplastic anemia were evaluated until death or over a follow-up period of at least 4 years. A prognostic formula was devised by multivariate analysis for prediction of short-term survivors at diagnosis of aplastic anemia: Using the initial percentage of nonmyeloid cells in the marrow aspirate and the neutrophil count in peripheral blood, survival of less than 4 months is predicted with a probability of 89% (sensitivity 80%). The lowest blood counts during the course of the disease are useful to predict the outcome in more chronic courses of aplastic anemia: A reticulocytopenia below 5 X 10(9)/1, a neutropenia below 0.1 X 10(9)/1 or a thrombocytopenia below 5 X 10(9)/1 all resulted in an ultimate mortality of over 90%. However, if none of these threshold values were reached, a 4 year survival of 71% was observed. Thus, 5 X 10(9) reticulocytes/1, 0.1 X 10(9) neutrophils/1 and 5 X 10(9) platelets/1 form a group of risk factors to predict a fatal or favorable outcome throughout the course of the disease.
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000741:Anemia, Aplastic / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality*; D001853:Bone Marrow / Q000473:pathology; D002452:Cell Count; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007958:Leukocyte Count; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009504:Neutrophils; D010976:Platelet Count; D011379:Prognosis; D012156:Reticulocytes; D013557:Switzerland