[The step toward a specific diagnosis. Evaluation of the value of diagnostic methods in the individual case with special attention to probability].
The preliminary diagnosis based on the patient's history and the results of a physical examination, is considered to be the most probable one. In general, however, differential diagnoses with a smaller degree of probability must also be taken into account. This article shows how--making use of simple probability theory--an assessment can be made as to whether an available diagnostic instrument is capable of increasing the probability of a post-test diagnosis vis-a-vis the pre-test probability level. The terms sensitivity and specificity are explained with the aid of clinical examples, and the possibility of increasing the probability of the diagnosis by iteration is discussed.
D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003933:Diagnosis; D003937:Diagnosis, Differential; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000175:diagnosis; D011336:Probability; D011655:Pulmonary Embolism / Q000175:diagnosis
Der Schritt zur gezielten Diagnostik. Abklärung des Wertes diagnostischer Methoden im Einzelfall unter Berücksichtigung von Wahrscheinlichkeiten.