title: [Prognosis of the dynamics and intensity of the epidemic process in viral hepatitis A].
abstract: The article deals with approaches to the calculation of the annual morbidity rate in virus hepatitis A at the period preceding the season of maximum morbidity, necessary for planning the relevant prophylactic and antiepidemic measures in due time. The method for calculating the monthly levels of sporadic morbidity in virus hepatitis A is proposed. This method permits the detection of complications on the epidemic situation, which is necessary for the timely organization of antiepidemic measures. The proposed method for predicting annual and monthly morbidity levels can be used in the practical work of specialists at sanitary and epidemic stations.
mesh_terms: D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006506:Hepatitis A / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D011379:Prognosis; D011890:Railroads; D012621:Seasons; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014586:USSR
vernacular_title: Prognozirovanie dinamiki i intensivnosti épidemicheskogo protsessa pri virusnom gepatite A.