title: Explorative statistical analysis and the valuation of hypotheses.
abstract: Clinical research has to include data from various sources. In many cases, the structure of the data allows explorative analysis only. This paper is concerned with situations in which no special hypotheses from a large set of possible ones have been predetermined for statistical testing or wherein tests are planned for hypotheses on only very few variables out of a high dimensional response as in controlled clinical trials. Explorative analysis of those experiments frequently uses p-values for the valuation of the hypotheses not designated for testing. It is shown by means of an example to what extent conclusions may be wrong if they result from ignoring (or misunderstanding) the explorative character of such p-values. Posterior probabilities with respect to suitable priors are proposed as an alternative explorative method for the valuation of hypotheses. The advantages of this procedure are discussed.
mesh_terms: D012106:Research; D013223:Statistics as Topic