A note on methodological fallacies in the "X% fallacy" literature.
This article demonstrates that the numerical estimate of an approximately 25 percent risk of nursing home institutionalization reported in the "4-5% fallacy" literature is based on an invalid set of implicit assumptions. Using the most recent national level statistics on nursing home residency and discharge, a measurement technique is introduced to provide an estimate of the maximum and minimum number of nursing home residents in 1976, and a corresponding range for the annualized risk of institutionalization between 6 and 9 percent, within which the true risk must lie.
D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007087:Illinois; D007326:Institutionalization / Q000639:trends*; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D009735:Nursing Homes / Q000639:trends; D011787:Quality of Health Care / Q000639:trends; D012107:Research Design; D012306:Risk; D013727:Terminal Care / Q000639:trends*