[Prediction in psychiatry].
Prediction in Psychiatry is a subject which involves other controversial subjects as the clinical judgements, the reliability of the psychiatric diagnostic, the validity of the psychiatric entities, and the disorientation in the statistics due to the lack of coherent psychiatric theories. In this work two fundamental ways of prediction are studied and compared: the statistical prediction and the clinical prediction. In general the greater validity of the statistical predictions is confirmed, at least in appearance, according to the results of the revised works. However each kind of prediction has its precise applications, depending of the circumstances, therefore obtaining the best predictable accuracy by the combination of the both methods. Besides the denying preconceived ideas, the exposition can serve as a guide to tackle a deeper study of this subject.
D006801:Humans; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales
La predicción en psiquiatría.