title: Prediction of survival in adults with acquired Bi- or pancytopenia.
abstract: In a retrospective study of 44 adults with acquired bi- or pancytopenia without evidence of any causal disorder, the survival curve suggested the existence of a subgroup of short survivors, mainly with aplastic anaemia, with death within 4 months. The initial values of 14 single clinical, blood and bone marrow variables were significantly associated with survival less than 4 months. Stepwise multiple logistic regression analyses identified 2 combinations of variables displaying significant simultaneous associations with short survival: (i) increased % of non-myeloid bone marrow cells and haemorrhagic manifestations initially; (ii) increased % of non-myeloid marrow cells, circulating erythroblasts and no history of any drug exposure. The predictive capacities of a resulting estimate of the probability of short survival and of previously introduced prognostic indices were approximately equal. The frequency of a correct prediction of a survival shorter than 4 months was in the range of 0.71-0.78 and that of longer survival in the range of 0.74-0.94.
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001854:Bone Marrow Cells; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010198:Pancytopenia / Q000097:blood / Q000401:mortality*; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013223:Statistics as Topic