title: Predictive tests for the response to cancer chemotherapy: limitations related to the prediction of rare events.
abstract: The reliability of a predictive test may be characterized by its sensitivity and specificity. The probability that a predicted event will actually occur depends on these indexes as well as the frequency of the predicted event. If such a test is used to predict for the therapeutic effect of single-agent chemotherapy in cancer patients, its predictive value is markedly affected by a generally low therapeutic efficacy in an unselected population.
mesh_terms: D000970:Antineoplastic Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D004353:Drug Evaluation, Preclinical; D006801:Humans; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000188:drug therapy*; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D013223:Statistics as Topic
chemical_list: D000970:Antineoplastic Agents