A dynamic model of tuberculosis epidemiology for Singapore.
An epidemiological model was used to estimate the size of the tuberculosis problem in Singapore from 1975 to 2025. It was shown that even without any control activities after 1979 there would be a reduction of the tuberculosis indices in the country. If the present control programme was pursued unchanged, a reduction of the tuberculosis problem by 10.0% and 14.5% would be expected in 2000 and 2025 respectively. Tuberculosis would be expected to remain a major public health problem over the next fifty years. In Singapore's context increased case finding and treatment of bacteriologically positive cases of tuberculosis would be the most effective ways of further reducing the tuberculosis problem over the next fifty years. Practical methods of implementing this were suggested. Reduced BCG coverage of infants was not expected to increase the tuberculosis problem to any significant extent over this period. Treatment relapse rates were shown not to be a sensitive variable that would affect the tuberculosis problem in Singapore.
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001500:BCG Vaccine; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007115:Immunization Schedule; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008954:Models, Biological; D012846:Singapore; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control
D001500:BCG Vaccine