title: Designing for nonparametric Bayesian survival analysis using historical controls.
abstract: This paper gives a method for choosing the number of patients N0 out of N available patients to be randomized to current controls om a two-arm study when comparison of nonparametric survival curves is the anticipated method of data analysis. The criterion imposed is that of choosing N0 to minimize the posterior variance of the difference between the current control and experimental survival curves. A nonparametric Bayesian argument incorporating the survival curve of available historical controls establishes the criterion. Formulas and tables which facilitate this computation are presented.
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D011897:Random Allocation