title: [Changes in blood cholesterol levels over a 10-year period; value of a single sample for predicting future blood cholesterol levels].
abstract: The aim of this study was to report the serum cholesterol changes over a 10 year period in 12,238 subjects aged 4 to 64 years (mean 28 +/- 14 years) based on 3 health check-ups at an average of 5.5 yearly intervals between 1973 and 1989, and to determine the value of a single sample for predicting the serum cholesterol level at 5 and 10 years, and the influence of blood pressure and Quetelet index on this predictability. After identification of the influencing factors, the different variables were adjusted using a step-by-step regression analysis. The correlation coefficients calculated between the adjusted cholesterol level at the first examination and that measured at 5 and 10 years, were all significant (0.38 to 0.59) and varied with age at the time of the first examination and gender. The positive predictive value of having a cholesterol level higher than the 90th centile at 5 and 10 years when it was already higher than this value at the first examination varied from 26 to 46% respectively with respect to the subgroups. The sensitivity of the test was 25 to 48%. The negative predictive value and specificity were 93 to 95%. The lowering of this threshold to the 80th centile increased the positive predictive value from 35 to 45% and decreased the specificity from 94 to 87% for the whole population. When the first two sampling results, five years apart, were taken into consideration simultaneously, the predictive value of having a raised cholesterol level at 10 years increased from 35 to 61%.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001794:Blood Pressure; D015992:Body Mass Index; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002784:Cholesterol / Q000097:blood*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006937:Hypercholesterolemia / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D002784:Cholesterol
vernacular_title: Evolution de la cholestérolémie sur 10 ans; intérêt d'un dosage ponctuel pour prédire la cholestérolémie future.