Where are tomorrow's specialists?
OBJECTIVE
To determine the extent to which New Zealand's future specialists are likely to be graduates of this country's medical schools.


METHODS
Forward projections were made on the basis of information from: (1) Medical Council annual reports recording additions to the Register of Specialists between July 1 1990 and June 30 1994, (2) Medical Council annual questionnaire data relating to New Zealand doctors qualifying in 1971-85, (3) Medical Directories of Australia, Canada, UK and USA, (4) selected Australasian specialist colleges on the number of registered trainees in New Zealand, and (5) Medical School data on New Zealand graduating classes since 1971.


RESULTS
Forty percent of the new specialists registered in New Zealand between 1 July 1990 and 30 June 1994 were graduates of overseas medical schools. Future projections suggest that this percentage is likely to increase. Major determinants of New Zealand specialist numbers are (1) the proportion of specialist New Zealand graduates (38%) not working in this country, and (2) the sex ratio of future graduating classes--proportionately fewer women (38%) than men (56%) specialise.


CONCLUSIONS
Graduates of this country's medical schools are likely to supply approximately half of New Zealand's future specialists.
D001315:Australia; D002170:Canada; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004501:Education, Medical; D004503:Education, Medical, Graduate / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005194:Family Practice / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005550:Foreign Medical Graduates / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008511:Medicine / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D009520:New Zealand / Q000453:epidemiology; D010822:Physicians, Women / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D011570:Psychiatry / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D012042:Registries; D012577:Schools, Medical; D013038:Specialization; D006113:United Kingdom; D014481:United States