title: The Edinburgh Cardiac Surgery Score survival prediction in the long-stay ICU cardiac surgical patient.
abstract: Predictors of outcome in long-stay patients following cardiac surgery have hitherto been ill defined. The aims of this study were to test the Parsonnet pre-operative scoring system and to define a scoring system for inhospital mortality applicable post-operatively to strengthen the clinical decision-making process. Following case note review of 262 consecutive patients who stayed 7 days or more in intensive care, a total of 110 pre-, intra- and post-operative factors were documented. In this long-stay group the Parsonnet score was confirmed to be predictive of 30 day mortality. Univariate analysis identified significant association between mortality in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and the following: inotrope days, (defined as number of inotropes times number of days) ventilation, units of platelets (P = < 0.00001), chest reopening, fresh frozen plasma units (P < 0.002), total parenteral nutrition, noradrenaline, Parsonnet score (P = 0.005), dopamine, bypass time, vasodilators, intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation, enteral nutrition and other major surgery (P < 0.05). Stepwise logistic regression on these significant factors was used to produce the Edinburgh Cardiac Surgery Score (ECS) applicable from Day 10 onwards in the intensive care unit: ECS Score = (Inotrope days) +2 (Ventilation) + (Platelets) + (Parsonnet) -3. The ECS score may be a useful predictor of ICU mortality probability for cardiac surgical patients requiring 10 days or more intensive care and is presently undergoing prospective evaluation in our centre.
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002423:Cause of Death; D003422:Critical Care; D005260:Female; D006331:Heart Diseases / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D007902:Length of Stay / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008020:Life Support Care / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008297:Male; D008485:Medical Audit; D008875:Middle Aged; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy; D011336:Probability; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012606:Scotland / Q000453:epidemiology; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016019:Survival Analysis