title: The predictive value of changes in serologic and cell markers of HIV activity for subsequent clinical outcome in patients with asymptomatic HIV disease treated with zidovudine.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine if serologic marker responses to zidovudine treatment during the first year of antiretroviral therapy could predict subsequent HIV disease progression independently of absolute CD4 lymphocyte responses.
  
  
  METHODS
  We conducted a case-control study in patients with asymptomatic HIV disease, who were initiating zidovudine therapy in a randomized, prospective trial. A total of 102 patients who progressed to AIDS or advanced AIDS-related complex and 177 randomly selected controls matched by baseline CD4 cell count and duration of follow-up had serum samples (from prior to and at 8, 16, 32 and 48 weeks of zidovudine treatment) assayed for acid-disassociated HIV p24 antigen, beta 2-microglobulin (beta 2M), neopterin, soluble interleukin (IL)-2 receptor, soluble CD4 protein and soluble CD8 protein.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Median time to event for cases was 20.2 months; median follow-up on study was 35.4 months for controls. After controlling for absolute CD4 count at baseline, increased baseline serum concentrations of HIV p24 antigen, beta 2M, neopterin, and soluble IL-2 receptor were highly predictive of increased risk of HIV disease progression. In a multiple logistic regression model, controlling for baseline marker values, change in beta 2M consistently added independent value to change in CD4 count in predicting subsequent risk of disease progression.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Monitoring serum immunologic markers, in particular beta 2M, in addition to absolute CD4 lymphocyte counts prior to and within the first 4 months after initiating dideoxynucleoside therapy can increase the accuracy of estimations of subsequent long-term risk of clinical HIV disease progression. This information may be useful to clinicians and patients who are making decisions about initiating or changing antiretroviral therapy.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco General Hospital 94110, USA.
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Jacobson
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: De Gruttola
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Reddy
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Arduino
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Strickland
authors.forename: R C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Reichman
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Bartlett
authors.forename: J P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Phair
authors.forename: M S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Hirsch
authors.forename: A C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Collier
mesh_terms: D000386:AIDS-Related Complex / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000821:virology; D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000821:virology; D000328:Adult; D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D004311:Double-Blind Method; D005260:Female; D006679:HIV Seropositivity / Q000188:drug therapy; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D015215:Zidovudine / Q000627:therapeutic use*
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D015215:Zidovudine