title: Multivariate models for predicting progression to AIDS and survival in human immunodeficiency virus-infected persons.
abstract: Nine hundred thirty persons enrolled in the US Air Force Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Natural History Study were evaluated with a standard battery of 30 potential surrogate markers of disease progression. A risk score for predicting progression to AIDS was then calculated for each patient in the cohort by using the four highest-ranking variables from multivariate analysis: percentage of CD4 CD29 cells, anergy status, age, and hemoglobin. For predicting survival, beta 2-microglobulin replaced age in the Cox model. Stratification according to the risk score demonstrated that rates of progression to AIDS and survival were significantly different between risk groups (P < .0001). The novel combination of these markers results in extremely accurate risk scores, which may serve as the basis for the development of true surrogate markers of disease progression.
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, Wilford Hall Medical Center, San Antonio, Texas.
authors.forename: S P
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Blatt
authors.forename: W F
authors.initials: WF
authors.lastname: McCarthy
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Bucko-Krasnicka
authors.forename: G P
authors.initials: GP
authors.lastname: Melcher
authors.forename: R N
authors.initials: RN
authors.lastname: Boswell
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Dolan
authors.forename: T M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Freeman
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Rusnak
authors.forename: R E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Hensley
authors.forename: W W
authors.initials: WW
authors.lastname: Ward
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000401:mortality; D015703:Antigens, CD / Q000032:analysis; D015415:Biomarkers; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000276:immunology / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D019012:Integrin beta1; D016023:Integrins / Q000032:analysis; D008297:Male; D008889:Military Personnel; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis
chemical_list: D015703:Antigens, CD; D015415:Biomarkers; D019012:Integrin beta1; D016023:Integrins