The AIDS epidemic in India: a new method for estimating current human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence rates.
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence rates in India were estimated using a new method that accounts for follow-up bias. Follow-up bias arises in epidemiologic cohort studies when the incidence rate among individuals who do and do not return for follow-up are different. The new method combines data on the prevalence of p24 antigenemia among all those initially screened together with the longitudinal follow-up data on the subset of patients who returned for follow-up. Using these methods, the current HIV incidence rate among patients attending sexually transmitted disease clinics in Pune, India, was 18.6% per year. It was found that follow-up bias can cause significant underestimation in HIV incidence rates, perhaps by as much as 60%. These incidence estimates, together with other HIV seroprevalence studies, suggest the HIV epidemic in India is growing rapidly.
Brookmeyer
R
R
Department of Biostatistics, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
Quinn
T
T
Shepherd
M
M
Mehendale
S
S
Rodrigues
J
J
Bollinger
R
R
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology; D015982:Bias; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000097:blood / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015528:HIV Seroprevalence; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007194:India / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies; D012749:Sexually Transmitted Diseases / Q000150:complications