[An analysis of relationship between mortality of cancer and age-period-cohort].
The APC (age-period-cohort analysis) model makes the assumption that the mortality mij in a given age-group and year is the (simple) product of three factors: an age-related factor ai, one period-related factor bj and one (birth) cohort-related factor Ck: mij = eai x ebj x eck. By taking the natural logarithm, a linear model results which can be treated with fairly standard statistics techniques: ln (mij) = ai+bj+ck. The mij data from observation data are used to estimate alpha, beta(a), beta(b), beta(c) by linear regression method. The value of EXP (beta) is to estimate the effect of each variable. The APC model is consistent with carcinogenesis modeling of molecular biology on tumour. The results of APC analysis for cervical cancer, male and female stomach cancer show that the risk factors have been changed. In fact, the risk factors of cervical cancer have been decreased since liberation, and the risk factor of stomach was increased in the first period of sixty's. The analytic method used in this paper will benefit the study on epidemiology and etiology of cancer.
Li
H Q
HQ
Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan.
Jin
S K
SK
Wu
F
F
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012307:Risk Factors; D013274:Stomach Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D002583:Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*