Estimation of the size of the HIV/AIDS epidemic due to blood transfusion in France.
BACKGROUND
This study presents estimates of the number of individuals contaminated by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) via a blood transfusion received in France before the end of 1991 and those who have developed or will develop AIDS.


METHODS
The computer simulation model takes into account several possible hypotheses concerning the annual number of infected blood donations collected before the introduction of HIV screening in August 1985, those collected between August 1985 and December 1991 not excluded by the testing procedure due to the seroconversion period, the number of labile blood components elaborated from one donation, the 5-year mortality rate of blood recipients, and the incubation delay.


RESULTS
Results reproducing the evolution of the reported annual number of transfusion-associated AIDS cases were selected which enabled the estimation of the number of recipients infected (between 3300 and 4300) and of the number of transfusion-associated AIDS cases (between 1600 and 1800) compared with 1300 transfusion-associated AIDS cases reported by June 1993.


CONCLUSIONS
This methodology could be used for other countries provided information required by the model is available.
Le Pont
F
F
INSERM U263, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Faculté de Médecine St Antoine, Paris, France.
Costagliola
D
D
Massari
V
V
Valleron
A J
AJ
D001782:Blood Donors; D001803:Blood Transfusion / Q000401:mortality; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D006679:HIV Seropositivity / Q000453:epidemiology; D015528:HIV Seroprevalence; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011336:Probability; D013997:Time Factors; D065227:Transfusion Reaction