title: [A dynamic model for analyzing and predicting the epidemic process in typhoid fever].
abstract: The results of calculations and theoretical considerations on processes of the spread of typhoid fever, made with the use of a new mathematical model which is based on the model proposed by B. Cvjetanović, further developed and improved. In this new model the latest phenomenology of the description of the processes of the spread of typhoid fever in the heterogeneous susceptible layer of the human population was used. A computer program for the new mathematical model of typhoid fever has been realized on a IBM PC/AT-386, which makes it possible to carry out prognostic analytical studies of the dynamics of the spread of typhoid fever at endemic territories. This program has been used for making calculations in connection with the analysis and prognostication of typhoid fever morbidity and mortality processes in St.-Petersburg.
authors.forename: V P
authors.initials: VP
authors.lastname: Grishin
authors.forename: B V
authors.initials: BV
authors.lastname: Boev
mesh_terms: D003289:Convalescence; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D008433:Mathematics; D008838:Microcomputers; D008954:Models, Biological; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D014435:Typhoid Fever / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D014871:Water Microbiology
vernacular_title: Dinamicheskaia model' dlia analiza i prognozirovaniia épidemicheskogo protsessa briushnogo tifa.