title: Age-related bias in probabilistic death searches due to neglect of the "prior likelihoods".
abstract: Major systematic bias can result when age-specific mortality data are sought through automated searches of large national death files, based on calculated odds in favor of a correct match. The bias occurs whenever the calculation fails to take into account: (a) the size of the death file being searched and (b) the age dependent likelihood that individual search record will find a correct match somewhere in that file. Indeed, there is widespread neglect of the "prior likelihood" or "prior odds" in favor of a fortuitous correct match on a single random pairing (i.e., before the identifiers have been compared). As a result, ratios of false matches to false nonmatches may be expected to vary widely in the different strata of a breakdown by age. A solution is described, using data from life tables and death statistics. The flexibility and merit of the "prior odds" for general application is emphasized.
authors.forename: H B
authors.initials: HB
authors.lastname: Newcombe
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015982:Bias; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003201:Computers; D016208:Databases, Factual; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011336:Probability