title: [Analysis of inconstancy of epidemic outbreaks within the dynamics of seasonal rise in mortality].
abstract: The possible cause of inconstancy appear against a background rhythmical repeated the seasonal raising of morbidity epidemic outbreak is studied by mathematical modeling. Results of the research are applied to influenza epidemics outbreaks against a background of seasonal raising of respiratory morbidity. Mechanism of outgrowing of seasonal raising to epidemic outbreak is explained as a change of the stable equilibrium by temporary unstable one.
authors.forename: I D
authors.initials: ID
authors.lastname: Kolesin
mesh_terms: D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012621:Seasons