title: Natural history of node-negative breast cancer: a study of 826 patients with long-term follow-up.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We were interested in examining the long-term outcome of patients with node-negative breast cancer to address the following questions: (1) Is node-negative breast cancer a disease that is curable by local modalities? (2) Are there predictors of disseminated disease in node-negative breast cancer? (3) Are there subgroups of tumors that have different times to recurrence?
  
  
  METHODS
  From 1927 to 1984, 826 women with node-negative breast cancer were treated at the University of Chicago. Patients underwent either a radical or extended radical mastectomy (83%) or a modified radical mastectomy (13%).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Follow-up evaluation ranged from 9 to 523 months (43.6 years); the mean follow-up period of survivors is 162 months (13.5 years). On multivariate analysis, the strongest predictor of outcome and time to relapse was pathologic tumor size. Patients with tumors less than 2 cm had a 20-year disease-free survival (DFS) rate of 79% and a median time to recurrence of 48 months as compared with patients with tumors greater than 2 cm, who had a survival rate of 64% (P < .001) and a median time to recurrence of 37 months (P = .01).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  With extended follow-up evaluation, node-negative breast cancer is a curable disease. Size is the strongest predictor of dissemination and rate of relapse. These data suggest that given the natural history of node-negative breast cancer, analysis of clinical trials with short follow-up periods can be misleading, since it may identify those patients whose tumors have a greater virulence but not necessarily a greater likelihood to metastasize.
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiation and Cellular Oncology, University of Chicago, IL, USA.
authors.forename: C A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Quiet
authors.forename: D J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Ferguson
authors.forename: R R
authors.initials: RR
authors.lastname: Weichselbaum
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hellman
mesh_terms: D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000628:therapy*; D017024:Chemotherapy, Adjuvant; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008207:Lymphatic Metastasis; D015409:Mastectomy, Radical; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D018714:Radiotherapy, Adjuvant; D011960:Receptors, Estrogen / Q000032:analysis; D012044:Regression Analysis; D016019:Survival Analysis
chemical_list: D011960:Receptors, Estrogen