title: [Prognostic factors in severe acute pancreatitis. Univariate and multivariate study].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to analyze the prediction of mortality in patients with severe acute pancreatitis.
  
  
  METHODS
  In a retrospective study 43 patients with severe acute pancreatitis were included. All patients required ICU admittance and surgical treatment. We evaluated severity according to Ranson's criteria, APACHE II score, CT scan classification (Hill), intraoperative findings (Vankemmel's classification) and number of organs failure. We performed a univariant and multivariant statistic study with lineal discriminant analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The overall mortality was 46.5%. Ranson's score and APACHE II did not correlate with mortality. Hill's classification did not reach significance either. However, only the Vankemmel's classification and the number of organs failure had statistic value (p < 0.01). After lineal discriminant analysis, the association of more than 4 Ranson's criteria, APACHE II up to 9 points, grades IV and V in Hill's classification and 4 organs failure had a predictive value for mortality.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In our limited experience the Vankemmel's classification and the number of organs failure had a predictive value for mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. The association of more than 4 Ranson's criteria. APACHE II up to 8 points, grades IV-V in Hill's classification and 4 organs failure disclosed poor prognosis.
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Cirugía, Hospital Universitario Reina Sofía, Córdoba.
authors.forename: F J
authors.initials: FJ
authors.lastname: Padillo
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rufián
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Briceño
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Izquierdo
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Varo
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Miño
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Pera Madrazo
mesh_terms: D018806:APACHE; D000208:Acute Disease; D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010195:Pancreatitis / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index
vernacular_title: Factores pronósticos en la pancreatitis aguda severa. Estudio univariante y multivariante.