title: Six-year predictors of problems in a national sample of children and youth: II. Signs of disturbance.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To identify 1986 and 1989 variables that significantly predicted signs of disturbance assessed in 1992.
  
  
  METHODS
  1986 parent reports and 1989 parent, teacher, and self-reports of syndromes, competencies, family variables, and stressful experiences were tested as predictors of 1992 reports of academic problems, school behavior problems, receipt of mental health services, suicidal behavior, police contacts, substance abuse, and the sum of these six signs.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The predictors accounted for large percentages of variance in most signs and predicted fairly accurately which members of case-control samples would manifest specific signs. Overall predictive accuracy was similar for both sexes, but many predictors differed for boys versus girls. The six signs were weakly associated with each other but were strongly associated with particular syndromes.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Signs of disturbance were predictable over a 6-year period despite the diversity of a national sample. Previous manifestations of certain signs were modest predictors of the same signs. The Delinquent Behavior and Attention Problems syndromes, plus stressful experiences, predicted the most signs. Sex differences in predictors argue against generalizing findings and inferences from one sex to the other.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont, Burlington 05401, USA.
authors.forename: T M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Achenbach
authors.forename: C T
authors.initials: CT
authors.lastname: Howell
authors.forename: S H
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: McConaughy
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Stanger
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D002648:Child; D002653:Child Behavior Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007859:Learning Disabilities / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology; D008297:Male; D010552:Personality Assessment; D010554:Personality Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology; D010555:Personality Inventory; D012307:Risk Factors; D012931:Social Environment; D019966:Substance-Related Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology