[The prognostic value of common predictive variables in rectal cancer].
BACKGROUND
A study was undertaken to identify common clinical variables, easy to obtain in an out-patient office, that complement the prognostic estimation on survival offered by the staging classification in patients operated on for rectal cancer.


METHODS
236 patients were included. Twenty-one variables related to symptoms, examinations, type of operation, tumor stage, pathology and follow-up were evaluated, all of them were collected prospectively. The relative predictive value was analyzed by means of the Cox' proportional hazards progression model.


RESULTS
Age, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), alcaline fosfatase (FA), deshidrogenase lactate (LDH), elective surgery, showed independent predictive value. The risk of death raised by 1.026 (CI 95%: 1.005-1.047) for each year of age at the moment of surgery, serum CEA over 5 ng/ml raises the risk by 2.32 (IC 95%: 1.385-3.893), LDH over 190 mU/ml by raises the risk by 1.64 (IC 95%: 1.026-2.639), FA over 250 U/ml raises the risk by 2.16 (IC 95%: 1.027-4.578), elective surgery reduces the risk by 0.32 (IC 95%: 0.106-0.965).


CONCLUSIONS
Age, CEA, LDH, FA and elective surgery, complement the prediction on survival offered by the tumor stage in patients operated on for rectal cancer.
Cerdán
F J
FJ
II Cátedra de Cirugía, Hospital Universitario San Carlos, Madrid.
Díez
M
M
Gómez
J J
JJ
Balibrea
J L
JL
D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012004:Rectal Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013997:Time Factors
Valor pronóstico de variables predictivas comunes en el cáncer de recto.