Stochastic simulation and sensitivity analysis: estimating future demand for health resources in China.
A simulation model has been built to estimate the demand for hospital beds and doctors in China between 1990 and 2010. The model was used to compare deterministic sensitivity analysis and stochastic simulation in assessing inherent uncertainty in health projections. The stochastic simulation method uses information more efficiently, and produces a more reasonable average estimate and a more meaningful range of projections than deterministic sensitivity analysis. However, it may be preferable to combine the use of both approaches because they have different, complementary, advantages and disadvantages. The usefulness of 3 value estimates of input variables and the benefits of the triangular distribution for stochastic simulation should be emphasized in health projections.
Song
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F
Centre for Health Economics, University of York, United Kingdom.
Rathwell
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T
D002681:China; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005544:Forecasting; D006295:Health Resources / Q000600:supply & distribution*; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000639:trends*; D006280:Health Workforce / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013269:Stochastic Processes