title: [How to monitor the development of a population of specialists? A method for prognostic estimation of needs in anesthesiology].
abstract: The Norwegian Medical Association has been delegated responsibility for suggesting guidelines to monitor the quality and capacity of postgraduate specialist training. In every specialty, a committee for specialist training has to monitor the availability of specialists in their field on behalf of the Association. The authors describe a systematic approach to monitoring, in which available information was carefully matched with selected survey data, to enable prognostications. The method was then applied to anaesthesia, and revealed a need for higher production of specialists in this field. More than 10% of the 309 consultant anaesthetist positions were vacant, owing to lack of applicants, and another 36 consultants are needed to ascertain a minimum of three specialists in every hospital providing emergency services. 15% of the certified specialists did not work as anaesthesiologists. It was estimated that ten persons would leave annually, either to do research or take up another specialty, and that 15 would retire. Based on the findings, it is suggested that the present specialist production of about 20 per year should be increased to secure the nation's future need of anaesthesiologists.
authors.affiliation: Yrkesmedisinsk avdeling, Haukeland Sykehus, Bergen.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Brattebø
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Wisborg
mesh_terms: D000776:Anesthesiology / Q000592:standards* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D004502:Education, Medical, Continuing; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006801:Humans; D008511:Medicine / Q000592:standards* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D008722:Methods; D009664:Norway; D011379:Prognosis; D011785:Quality Assurance, Health Care; D013038:Specialization
vernacular_title: Hvordan monitorere utviklingen i en spesialistpopulasjon? En metode til å utarbeide prognoser brukt på anestesiologi.