title: Relationship of alcohol expectancies to problem drinking among college women.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate the stability of expectancies about alcohol and their ability to prospectively explain drinking patterns and the occurrence of alcohol-related problems among college freshman women.
  
  
  METHODS
  College women (n = 120) completed a standardized measure of expectations and subjective evaluations of positive and negative outcomes associated with drinking and a questionnaire assessing drinking patterns and common alcohol-related problems at both the beginning and end of the school year. Ninety percent of the students were Caucasian with a mean age of 17.9 years (SD = 0.5).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Students' positive and negative outcome expectations and their subjective evaluations at the beginning of the year were significantly correlated with drinking patterns at the end of the year (p's < .05). During the year, students at low risk for problem drinking developed stronger positive attitudes toward the effects of alcohol upon courage, became less concerned about potential behavioral impairment, and perceived less negative effects upon self-perception. High risk students showed a significant decline in their positive attitudes toward the effects of alcohol upon their sociability. Expectancies about alcohol at the beginning of the school year explained 33% of variance in subsequent drinking (F = 6.17; p < .0004) and 20% of the variance in alcohol-related problems occurring during the year (F = 3.26; p < .02). Outcome evaluation scales at the beginning of the year explained more variance in subsequent drinking and alcohol-related problems than did outcome expectation scales.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Alcohol outcome expectations and their subjective evaluations were relatively stable across the freshman year for these college women. Alcohol expectancies on entry into college explained significant amounts of variability in drinking behavior and the occurrence of alcohol-related problems during the subsequent freshman year. Students' attitudes toward perceived outcomes may be more important than the perceived likelihood of the outcomes themselves.
authors.affiliation: Division of Adolescent Medicine, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee 37232-3571, USA.
authors.forename: M J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Werner
authors.forename: L S
authors.initials: LS
authors.lastname: Walker
authors.forename: J W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Greene
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000374:Aggression; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D007722:Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012309:Risk-Taking; D012649:Self Concept; D012919:Social Behavior; D015144:Southeastern United States; D013334:Students / Q000523:psychology*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D016387:Women's Health