[A method for stratifying malariogenic territories in order to construct a system of mathematical models of the prevalence of malaria. 1].
The paper describes procedures for stratifying malariogenic areas that are homogeneous in the development pattern for epidemic stratum rises, which will be used to design a set of mathematical malaria spread models. The first stage of the procedures is to stratify P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria on phase planes. The morbidity rate of P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria was analyzed in the north-western areas of India in 1975-1990. Eighty-two observations provided 4 types of phase curves for tropic malaria, which form a polygon, a loop polygon, U-shaped ones and those without any specific signs and 4 groups of phase curves for P. vivax malaria and the U-shaped phase curve with a loop for P. vivax malaria. It is shown that there is a steady-state pattern of phase curve changes in 71%. It is suggested that the pattern of a phase curve can be a diagnostic characterization of the given area.
Sergiev
V P
VP
Boev
B V
BV
Orlov
V S
VS
Baranova
A M
AM
Sabgaĭda
T P
TP
Ezhov
M N
MN
D000465:Algorithms; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D007194:India / Q000453:epidemiology; D016778:Malaria, Falciparum / Q000453:epidemiology*; D016780:Malaria, Vivax / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D015995:Prevalence
Metodika stratifikatsii maliariogennykh territoriĭ s tsel'iu postroeniia sistemy matematicheskikh modeleĭ rasprostraneniia maliarii. Soobshchenie 1.