Cancer incidence: life table risk versus cumulative risk.
OBJECTIVE
To study differences between various methods of estimating cancer risk in individuals.


METHODS
Information was obtained from a cancer registry. Lifetime risk was calculated using the life table method, taking competing causes of death into account and using well recognised methods such as the cumulative rate and risk.


METHODS
Regional cancer registry of the Comprehensive Cancer Centre IKL, located in Maastricht, The Netherlands.


METHODS
Patients with a first primary malignancy in 1989-90 in the catchment area of the cancer registry.


RESULTS
The lifetime risk of developing cancer was estimated to be 34.8% for males and 30.4% for females. In males, especially, the risk estimates were considerably higher when the cumulative risk was used.


CONCLUSIONS
The life table method is convenient for estimating the probability that a person will develop cancer during a defined period or during his or her lifetime. The other estimates overestimate the risk of the disease under investigation, especially in the very elderly.
Schouten
L J
LJ
Department of Medical Informatics and Epidemiology, University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Straatman
H
H
Kiemeney
L A
LA
Verbeek
A L
AL
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008017:Life Expectancy; D015993:Life Tables; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D012042:Registries; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012737:Sex Factors