Estimating African-American mortality from inaccurate data.
This paper evaluates the quality of vital statistics and census data for estimating African-American mortality over a period of six decades. The authors employ intercensal cohort comparisons and extinct generation estimates to demonstrate that conventionally constructed African-American death rates may be seriously flawed as early as age 50. Using the crude death rate at ages 50+ for 1978-1982 in conjunction with estimated growth rates and two model life table systems, the authors estimate black age-specific death rates in 1978-1982. These results suggest that if a racial crossover in death rates occurs, the age pattern of mortality among African-Americans must be far outside the range observed in populations with more accurate data.
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Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia 19104.
Preston
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D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001741:Black or African American / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015982:Bias; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003644:Death Certificates; D003710:Demography; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D015993:Life Tables; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014798:Vital Statistics