Calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments: a single model for both.
In a recent issue of this journal, Winman and Juslin (34, 135-148, 1993) present a model of the calibration of subjective probability judgments for sensory discrimination tasks. They claim that the model predicts a pervasive underconfidence bias observed in such tasks, and present evidence from a training experiment that they interpret as supporting the notion that different models are needed to describe judgment of confidence in sensory and in cognitive tasks. The model is actually part of the more comprehensive decision variable partition model of subjective probability calibration that was originally proposed in Ferrell and McGoey (Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26, 32-53, 1980). The characteristics of the model are described and it is demonstrated that the model does not predict underconfidence, that it is fully compatible with the overconfidence frequently found in calibration studies with cognitive tasks, and that it well represents experimental results from such studies. It is concluded that only a single model is needed for both types of task.
Ferrell
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Systems and Industrial Engineering Department, University of Arizona, Tucson.
D003071:Cognition; D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D007858:Learning; D008962:Models, Theoretical