Prior crash and violation records of pilots in commuter and air taxi crashes: a case-control study.
With a case-control design, this study examined the relationships of crash/incident history, violation history, pilot age, flight experience, and recent flight time with the likelihood of being involved in commuter aircraft and air taxi crashes. Cases (n = 725) were pilots who had been involved in commuter aircraft or air taxi crashes during 1983-88, identified from the National Transportation Safety Board aviation crash data base. From the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) airmen information system, 1,555 pilots were randomly selected as controls. Controls were frequently-matched with cases on medical class and calendar year. Different data bases within the FAA's airmen information system were linked to ascertain information about crash/incident and violation records in the previous 3 years, age, total flight time, and flight time in the prior 6 months. Multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to estimate odds ratios and evaluate dose-response effects, non-linear relationships, and interactions. Cases had significantly higher prevalence rates of prior crash/incident and violation records. The estimated odds ratio of being involved in a commuter aircraft or an air taxi crash was 1.7 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-2.4) for crash/incident history, and 1.6 (95% CI, 1.1-2.2) for violation history. A "dose-response effect" was found with both crash/incident history and violation history, with higher odds ratios for pilots with crashes versus incidents or with more serious violations. Total flight time showed a diminishing protective effect. Either very small or very large recent flight time increased the risk of being involved in a commuter aircraft or an air taxi crash.
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Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205.
Baker
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D000060:Accidents, Aviation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016017:Odds Ratio