[When can tuberculosis be eradicated in Denmark?].
Eradication is here defined as a tuberculosis (tbc.) incidence below one case of contagious tbc. per million per year and a Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mt) infection prevalence of 1% or lower and declining. The situation is evaluated separately for Danes and foreigners. Late cases of tbc due to Mt infection more than five years earlier will decline with declining Mt infection prevalence over 50 years. Early tbc. due to Mt infection within five years can with good case finding, effective treatment, and contact examination be kept at a level of 33% of late cases. Relapses are now 15% of all cases and will also decline relatively. HIV/tbc. will only be a limited problem for a few years due to a low Mt infection prevalence. Continued limited immigration will only have minor influence on tbc. among Danes. Tbc. in immigrants already living in Denmark will decline over 10-20 years to around 20/100,000 but can not be eradicated in first generation immigrants. MT resistance will not be of importance for eradication. It is estimated that only major social disasters will be able to prevent eradication of tbc. among Danes by 2040.
Kok-Jensen
A
A
Lungeklinikken/afdeling P., Bispebjerg Hospital, København.
D003718:Denmark / Q000453:epidemiology; D004352:Drug Resistance, Microbial; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D006801:Humans; D009169:Mycobacterium tuberculosis / Q000187:drug effects / Q000276:immunology; D015995:Prevalence; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission
Hvornår kan tuberkulose vaere udryddet i Danmark?