A model for AIDS pathogenesis.
The idea is put forward and analysed numerically, that within an infected person HIV evolves to increase its reproductivity within the population of CD4+ cells. A mathematical model predicts initial viremia and CD4+ cell drop after HIV infection and thereafter a slow progressive decline in the number of CD4+ cells, although for an extended period HIV is kept at a relatively low level by an active immune response. The time span T until the number of CD4+ cells falls below 20 per cent of its normal value depends on several model parameters. Assuming Gaussian distributions for these parameters, the model predicts a distribution function for T which resembles the observed distribution function for the incubation period to AIDS.
Department of Medical Biometry, University of Tübingen, Germany.
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D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000276:immunology*; D000915:Antibody Affinity; D001666:Binding Sites, Antibody; D015704:CD4 Antigens; D018450:Disease Progression; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000235:genetics / Q000276:immunology* / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D007111:Immunity, Cellular / Q000502:physiology; D008231:Lymphopenia / Q000276:immunology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D009154:Mutation / Q000276:immunology; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D006377:T-Lymphocytes, Helper-Inducer / Q000276:immunology*; D013997:Time Factors; D014766:Viremia; D017735:Virus Latency / Q000276:immunology*; D014779:Virus Replication / Q000276:immunology
D015704:CD4 Antigens