title: Development of a practical screening tool to identify preterm, low-birthweight neonates in Ethiopia.
abstract: Preterm, low-birthweight (LBW) newborn infants are at high risk of neonatal mortality and morbidity and need early referral for special paediatric care. In developing countries, birthweight and gestational age often cannot be measured and a practical screening tool based on surrogate neonatal body measurements to identify high-risk infants would be very useful. We studied a consecutive series of 843 singleton infants born at a referral hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Gestational age, birthweight, and four body measurements (chest, head, and mid-arm circumferences and length) were accurately recorded. We randomly divided the series into equal-sized training and validation groups. In the training group, we used a recursive partitioning technique to develop a simple predictive algorithm--infants were classified as high risk if head circumference was 31 cm or less or if chest circumference was 30 cm or less, and were classified as low risk otherwise. When tested in the validation group, this algorithm had sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value for prediction of preterm and LBW births above 90%. Thus, neonatal body measurements can be combined into a pragmatic, accurate screening tool suitable for clinical use in developing countries.
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology, Statistics, and Prevention Research, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Rockville, MD 20852.
authors.forename: E G
authors.initials: EG
authors.lastname: Raymond
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Tafari
authors.forename: J F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Troendle
authors.forename: J D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Clemens
mesh_terms: D000886:Anthropometry; D003906:Developing Countries; D005002:Ethiopia; D006801:Humans; D007230:Infant, Low Birth Weight; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007234:Infant, Premature; D015997:Neonatal Screening; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity