title: Provirus copy number to predict disease progression in asymptomatic human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection.
abstract: To evaluate the prognostic value of provirus copy number through quantitative DNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in early stages of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection, 42 untreated and asymptomatic HIV-1-seropositive subjects with baseline CD4+ cell counts > 200 x 10(6)/L were included in a prospective study and followed over a median of 27 months. Disease progression was defined as decrease in CD4+ cells to < 200 (14 events). At enrollment, provirus copy number was associated with CD4+ cell count and percentage, serum IgA, and p24 antigenemia. Elevated provirus copy number above 20 allowed identification of patients at high risk of a subsequently decreasing CD4+ cell count, even after adjusting for baseline CD4+ cell count (P = .003). Measuring provirus copy number by PCR at early stages of HIV-1 infection could offer a useful early means to predict progression to AIDS.
authors.affiliation: Département de Biostatistique et Informatique Médicale, Hôpital Saint-Louis, Paris, France.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Chevret
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kirstetter
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mariotti
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Lefrère
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Frottier
authors.forename: J J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Lefrère
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D015496:CD4-Positive T-Lymphocytes / Q000382:microbiology*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004279:DNA, Viral / Q000032:analysis; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000209:etiology / Q000382:microbiology*; D015497:HIV-1 / Q000235:genetics / Q000254:growth & development*; D006801:Humans; D007958:Leukocyte Count; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016133:Polymerase Chain Reaction; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011533:Proviruses / Q000235:genetics / Q000254:growth & development*
chemical_list: D004279:DNA, Viral