title: Modeling seasonality in fecundability, conceptions, and births.
abstract: This paper develops a model of seasonal fluctuations in fecundability, conceptions, and births. We begin with a model of individual fecundability that combines behavioral and biological components, with particular attention to the roles of coital frequency, sperm concentration, fetal loss, and contraception. The individual-level model is then expanded into a model of seasonal fluctuations in births at the population level, which accounts explicitly for seasonal fluctuations in the size of the susceptible population. We illustrate the use of the model by analyzing proposed explanations of birth seasonality that rely on extreme summer heat.
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48104-2590.
authors.forename: D A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Lam
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Miron
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Riley
mesh_terms: D001741:Black or African American / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D001723:Birth Rate; D003075:Coitus; D005260:Female; D005313:Fetal Death / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006358:Hot Temperature; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011247:Pregnancy; D011336:Probability; D012621:Seasons; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D044465:White People / Q000706:statistics & numerical data