title: [The prediction of endemic levels of acute diarrheal diseases in Cuba].
abstract: Taking into account the chronological series of weekly report rates of acute diarrheal disease in the 15-64 age group population of each province of the country during the 1986-1989 period, prognosis of the weekly endemic rate and endemic variability limit for the year 1990 were made. Results were compared with the report rates observed during the year. The accurateness of prognosis and the width attained for confidence intervals suggest that report rate values above the saddle point are indicators of a probable outbreak of an acute diarrheal disease epidemic, and thus requiring research.
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Medicina Tropical Pedro Kourí.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Aguirre Jaime
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Alonso Fernández
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D003462:Cuba / Q000453:epidemiology; D003967:Diarrhea / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011379:Prognosis
vernacular_title: Pronóstico de niveles de endemia de enfermedades diarreicas agudas en Cuba.