Ventilatory lung function level as a predictor of survival among the elderly.
During a population survey in 1986/1987 among community-dwelling elderly in Cracow, aged 65 yrs and over, measurements of ventilatory lung function were carried out on 698 males and 1,211 females. The main objective of the study was to assess the importance of forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) as a predictor of survival experienced in this population group over a 6 year follow-up, in comparison with that of sociodemographic variables, smoking habit, chronic respiratory symptoms, hypertension, obesity and self-assessment of health. Statistical analysis of the relationship between mortality and chosen predictors has been performed with Cox proportional hazards statistical model. It was found that in addition to age, the FEV1 level was the most relevant and independent of age survival predictor among the elderly. In males, a reduction of FEV1 by 100 ml after allowing for age, showed a significantly higher risk of dying by 4%, (relative risk (RR) = 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.06), and in females by 5% (RR = 1.05; 95% CI 1.05-1.09). Male current or ex-smokers displayed a higher mortality risk due to reduction of FEV1 (RR = 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.09) compared to lifetime nonsmokers (RR = 1.04; 95% CI 1.00-1.07); the corresponding RR values in women were 1.12 (95% CI 1.02-1.23) and 1.04 (95% CI 1.00-1.08), respectively. However, the differences found between the smokers and nonsmokers were not significant in either gender group. Other potential predictors considered, such as education, chronic respiratory symptoms, hypertension, self-assessment of health, or obesity, appeared to have been irrelevant in the multivariate analysis.
Jedrychowski
W
W
Dept of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Collegium Medicum, Jagiellonian University, Cracow, Poland.
Maugeri
U
U
Gomola
K
K
Tobiasz-Adamczyk
B
B
D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001294:Attitude to Health; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005541:Forced Expiratory Volume / Q000502:physiology; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000453:epidemiology; D008168:Lung / Q000502:physiology*; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology; D011044:Poland / Q000453:epidemiology; D011159:Population Surveillance; D012119:Respiration / Q000502:physiology*; D012140:Respiratory Tract Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D012649:Self Concept; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D015996:Survival Rate