Workforce predictions: a situational analysis and critique of the World Health Organisation model.
The FDI/WHO JWG6 Computer Program is a needs-based, demand-weighted method of workforce prediction. Using this program and recent Victorian epidemiological data the objectives of the investigation were: to calculate the current state of community need for dental services and personnel in the State of Victoria; to forecast community service and personnel needs for the years 2000 and 2020; and to report qualitatively on the program's value as a workforce planning tool. High, low and moderate estimates of workforce requirements for the year 1988 were obtained by modifying certain variables related to needs/demands. The moderate estimate was used to calculate the number of operators needed within the population, and this demonstrated a required operator to population ratio of 1:2,019. Results for the year 2000 predicted the operator to population ratio required in Victoria will be 1:1,988 and for the year 2020, 1:2,165. Conclusions concerning the WHO program are firstly that it suggests a present under-supply of oral health care providers which is likely to increase by the year 2020 and secondly that it is a useful tool for workforce planning and monitoring.
Morgan
M V
MV
School of Dental Science, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
Wright
F A
FA
Lawrence
A J
AJ
Laslett
A M
AM
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003149:Community Dentistry / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D004245:DMF Index; D003752:Dental Health Services / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000600:supply & distribution* / Q000639:trends; D003815:Dentists / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000600:supply & distribution* / Q000639:trends; D003778:Dentures / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005544:Forecasting; D006285:Health Planning; D006291:Health Policy; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009971:Orthodontics, Corrective / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011153:Population; D013515:Surgery, Oral / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014739:Victoria / Q000453:epidemiology; D000078329:Workforce; D014944:World Health Organization