Extracting the coherent core of human probability judgement: a research program for cognitive psychology.
Human intuition is a rich and useful guide to uncertain events in the environment but suffers from probabilistic incoherence in the technical sense. Developing methods for extracting a coherent body of judgement that is maximally consistent with a person's intuition is a challenging task for cognitive psychology, and also relevant to the construction of artificial expert systems. The present article motivates this problem, and outlines one approach to it.
Osherson
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IDIAP, Martigny, Valais, Switzerland.
Shafir
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Smith
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EE
D001185:Artificial Intelligence; D003071:Cognition; D003210:Concept Formation; D005103:Expert Systems; D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D008960:Models, Psychological; D011337:Probability Learning