Extracting the coherent core of human probability judgement: a research program for cognitive psychology.
Human intuition is a rich and useful guide to uncertain events in the environment but suffers from probabilistic incoherence in the technical sense. Developing methods for extracting a coherent body of judgement that is maximally consistent with a person's intuition is a challenging task for cognitive psychology, and also relevant to the construction of artificial expert systems. The present article motivates this problem, and outlines one approach to it.
IDIAP, Martigny, Valais, Switzerland.
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Osherson
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Shafir
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Smith
D001185:Artificial Intelligence; D003071:Cognition; D003210:Concept Formation; D005103:Expert Systems; D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D008960:Models, Psychological; D011337:Probability Learning