[The mathematical modelling of a dynamic epidemic process with a change in the infectivity of the causative agent of an infectious disease].
The influence of changes in epidemic parameters on the time course of the disease manifestations was under study. An attempt to determine the relationship between such epidemic signs as the infectiousness of the parasite population (the transfer factor P) and morbidity and to study the influence of P on the seasonal and cyclic patterns of morbidity by modeling the process was made. The relationship between the quantitative parameters of "infectiousness" and "infectiousness profile" of the causative agent and morbidity was established. Seasonal and cyclic fluctuations of the modeled epidemic process were explained by the annual changes, constituting some percent shares of its constant value.
Beliakov
V D
VD
Kravtsov
Iu V
IuV
Gerasimov
A N
AN
D001419:Bacteria / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010507:Periodicity; D012621:Seasons; D009626:Terminology as Topic; D013997:Time Factors; D014774:Virulence; D014780:Viruses / Q000472:pathogenicity*
Matematicheskoe modelirovanie dinamiki épidemicheskogo protsessa pri izmenenii zaraznosti vozbuditelia infektsionnoĭ bolezni.