Mathematical model for the AIDS epidemics evolution in Romania.
The individuals are distributed in 9 risk groups (adults and children), in which an HIV transmission way is predominant. Taking into account a simplified graph of the HIV infection evolution, kinetic equations for the number of individuals from each risk group--situated in various stages of HIV infection--are written. The approximative solutions of these equations give us: the characteristic exponents of the temporal evolutions of the main and secondary local epidemics; the ratios Ci/Bi and Di/Bi of asymptomatically contaminated and dead (as consequence of AIDS) versus symptomatically contaminated; the onset of local epidemics in various risk groups; the relative amplitude of the secondary local epidemics versus the main local ones.
Cristea
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Stefan S. Nicolau Intitute of Virology, Bucharest, Romania.
Strauss
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D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D002648:Child; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D015497:HIV-1; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012307:Risk Factors; D012383:Romania / Q000453:epidemiology; D017678:Sex Distribution