Rising trends of oral cancer mortality among males worldwide: the return of an old public health problem.
Oral cancer is considered widely to be a form of cancer whose etiology is well understood and which is becoming relatively rare in developed countries. There have been, however, a series of recent reports indicating that after many years of declining risk, the rates may be rising again in men. To investigate the extent of such changes, national time-series of oral-cancer mortality data available in the World Health Organization's mortality database have been analyzed. Age-period-cohort modeling was used to establish the extent and nature of these changes and to allow comparisons among countries. Nineteen out of 24 national datasets demonstrate a similar pattern of recent increasing cohort-effects for oral cancer in men. The largest increases have occurred in countries of central and eastern Europe where rates have increased by a factor of from three to 10 within a generation. The cohort-based nature of the changes observed in men suggest that there will be a continuing increase in the absolute numbers of cases of oral cancer to be treated in the coming decades.
Macfarlane
G J
GJ
European Institute of Oncology, Milan, Italy.
Boyle
P
P
Evstifeeva
T V
TV
Robertson
C
C
Scully
C
C
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D002170:Canada / Q000453:epidemiology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009062:Mouth Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D011634:Public Health; D012307:Risk Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014944:World Health Organization