title: Prognostic validity of short-term abstinence in alcoholism.
abstract: A demonstrated period of abstinence is often viewed as a good prognostic sign in alcoholism. For example, short-term abstinence is one factor often considered important as a selection criteria for alcoholics who are being evaluated as liver transplant candidates. However, the prognostic validity of short-term abstinence is unclear. We evaluated the effects of 3 and 6 months of abstinence on readmission rates in a series of 299 alcoholics following discharge from inpatient treatment. Readmission rates were stratified using a 3-factor model of alcoholism severity. This 3-factor model defined groups with 1-year readmission rates, ranging from 15.8% to 62.7%. Short-term abstinence did not have strong effects on readmission rates for the most severe alcoholics, nor did short-term abstinence produce clinically significant reduction for readmission rates for the least severe alcoholics. We conclude that short-term abstinence has minimal effect on prognosis for alcoholics with various levels of baseline severity.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, University of Iowa College of Medicine, Iowa City.
authors.forename: W R
authors.initials: WR
authors.lastname: Yates
authors.forename: D A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Reed
authors.forename: B M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Booth
authors.forename: B J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Masterson
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Brown
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000523:psychology / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010359:Patient Readmission; D011379:Prognosis; D012008:Recurrence; D016320:Substance Abuse Treatment Centers; D013695:Temperance / Q000523:psychology*; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome