A mathematical model of detection and dynamics of porcine transmissible gastroenteritis.
Transmissible gastroenteritis (TGE) is a viral disease causing dehydration, diarrhoea and death in pigs. The disease is widespread in pig-producing areas of the world but does not occur in Australia. A mathematical model of TGE spread within a pig herd is proposed and calibrated by reference to published data. The model is then applied to two situations of special interest; first to estimate the delay before detection of TGE (6 to over 30 days) when infection is first introduced into a herd of domestic or feral pigs, and second the effect of the disease in a population of feral pigs (could become endemic if transmission is high).
Hone
J
J
Bureau of Resource Sciences, Department of Primary Industries and Energy, Canberra, Australia.
D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D004198:Disease Susceptibility; D005761:Gastroenteritis, Transmissible, of Swine / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000635:transmission; D008954:Models, Biological; D009026:Mortality; D012307:Risk Factors; D013552:Swine