title: CD4+ lymphocyte level and rate of decline as predictors of AIDS in intravenous drug users with HIV infection.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To examine the relationship between rate of loss of CD4+ T lymphocytes and risk of AIDS in HIV-infected intravenous drug users (IVDU) enrolled in a methadone program in the Bronx, New York.
  
  
  METHODS
  Serial CD4 percentages (CD4%) among lymphocytes before AIDS diagnosis were recorded at approximately 6-month intervals for 190 HIV-antibody-positive subjects.
  
  
  METHODS
  A nested case-control study was performed, in which all subjects who developed AIDS were compared with those who remained AIDS-free. The relationship between CD4% decline and AIDS risk was evaluated using proportional-hazards regression.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Analyses that used a single baseline CD4% measurement to adjust for CD4+ lymphocyte count suggested that both low (1-5 CD4% per semester) and high (> 5 CD4% per semester) rates of decline might be related to AIDS risk: relative risks were 1.83 and 1.44, although the 95% confidence intervals (Cl) included 1.0 in each case. Adjustment for current level of CD4% eliminated the association between low rates of CD4% decline and AIDS risk, but not that between high rates of decline and AIDS risk (adjusted relative risk, 1.80; 95% Cl, 0.57-5.70). Serial observations showed that a rate of decline of CD4% > 5 per semester was a significant predictor of AIDS risk after controlling for level of CD4% achieved (adjusted relative risk, 3.58; 95% Cl, 1.07-11.95).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  IVDU who develop AIDS have a greater rate of CD4 cell loss than subjects who remain AIDS-free. A low rate of CD4+ lymphocyte depletion is not an important predictor of the immediate onset of AIDS in HIV-infected IVDU, compared with CD4+ lymphocyte level, but a high rate of CD4+ decline can be.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Social Medicine, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY 10467.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Alcabes
authors.forename: E E
authors.initials: EE
authors.lastname: Schoenbaum
authors.forename: R S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Klein
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000097:blood / Q000150:complications* / Q000453:epidemiology; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D015496:CD4-Positive T-Lymphocytes; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000097:blood / Q000150:complications* / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D007958:Leukocyte Count; D008297:Male; D009519:New York City / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D015819:Substance Abuse, Intravenous / Q000097:blood / Q000150:complications*