A model for intra-familial distribution of an infectious disease (Chagas' disease).
A probabilistic model for intra-familial distribution of infectious disease is proposed and applied to the prevalence of positive serology for Trypanosoma cruzi infection in a Northeastern Brazilian sample. This double binomial with one tail excess model fits satisfactorily to the data and its interpretation says that around 51% of these 982 families are free of infection risk; among those that are at risk, 3% have a high risk (0.66), probably due to high domestic infestation of the vector bug; while 97% show a small risk (0.11), probably due to accidental, non-domestic transmission.
Feitosa
M F
MF
Departamento de Genética, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
Krieger
H
H
D016010:Binomial Distribution; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D014355:Chagas Disease / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005192:Family Health; D006801:Humans; D011336:Probability