title: Analysis of infectious disease data from partner studies with unknown source of infection.
abstract: Partner studies are useful for estimating the transmission probabilities of infectious diseases. However, it is often not known which partner was the source of the infection (the index case). The objective of this paper is to develop statistical methods for analyzing partner studies when it is uncertain which partners acquired the infection from sources outside the partnership. The approach involves simultaneously modelling the probability of acquisition of infection from outside the partnership, and the probability of transmission within the partnership as a function of covariates. An EM algorithm is presented. Efficiency and simulation results are given in some special situations involving heterosexual transmission studies. In heterosexual partner studies, the methods depend crucially on the availability of a covariate that provides information about which partner was the likely source of infection.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21205.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Magder
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Brookmeyer
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D001699:Biometry / Q000379:methods*; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D012747:Sexual Partners; D012749:Sexually Transmitted Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*