title: Plotting summary predictions in multistate survival models: probabilities of relapse and death in remission for bone marrow transplantation patients.
abstract: Multistate survival analysis usually involves a series of detailed regressional analyses describing transitions between various states. There is an often neglected need for the many estimates resulting from such an analysis to be re-synthesized into summary statements, such as prediction of various outcomes from specified patient histories. Arjas and Erola recently proposed a framework for dynamic probabilistic causality which has calculation of such prediction statements as a central tool. We illustrate these procedures on data from a multicentre bone marrow transplantation study, with death while in remission and relapse as terminal events and recovery of the patients's platelets to a normal level and the onset of acute graft-versus-host disease as intermediate events, using Cox regression models throughout. Among the features illustrated by the resulting plots is a strong effect on death while in remission if the platelets do not recover within the first three months.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee 53226.
authors.forename: J P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Klein
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Keiding
authors.forename: E A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Copelan
mesh_terms: D016026:Bone Marrow Transplantation / Q000401:mortality*; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006086:Graft vs Host Disease / Q000401:mortality*; D006801:Humans; D007938:Leukemia / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery; D015470:Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery; D015337:Multicenter Studies as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D054198:Precursor Cell Lymphoblastic Leukemia-Lymphoma / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery; D011336:Probability; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012074:Remission Induction; D012307:Risk Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis