Relationships between incidence and mortality in non-reversible diseases.
The estimation of the incidence of chronic diseases from mortality and survival rates is shown to be attainable, under some simplifying hypotheses, through the solution of a convolution equation. Exact solutions are derived for the cases in which survival times of incident cases are exponential or gamma distributed. Applications to breast cancer, HIV infection and stomach cancer incidence in the Italian population are presented.
Capocaccia
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Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D002423:Cause of Death; D002908:Chronic Disease / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012307:Risk Factors; D013274:Stomach Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D016019:Survival Analysis