title: Transient periodicity and episodic predictability in biological dynamics.
abstract: Biological time series often contain passing episodes of nearly periodic dynamics. In chaotic systems, such transient periodicity can reflect the existence of semiperiodic saddles--nonstable invariant sets--contained in the attractor. Motion in the vicinity of such objects has a prominent periodic component. In addition, trajectories can become temporarily trapped in these neighbourhoods before exiting. The immediate dynamical antecedents (low-order preimages) of transient periodicity are well defined and, along with the saddles to which they map, correspond to regions of enhanced predictability under nonlinear forecasting. This suggests that it may be possible to forecast the onset of transient periodicity in systems for which overall predictability is low. The present paper reviews these concepts and applies them to biological phenomena at different levels of organization.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson 85721.
authors.forename: W M
authors.initials: WM
authors.lastname: Schaffer
authors.forename: B E
authors.initials: BE
authors.lastname: Kendall
authors.forename: C W
authors.initials: CW
authors.lastname: Tidd
authors.forename: L F
authors.initials: LF
authors.lastname: Olsen
mesh_terms: D002648:Child; D004827:Epilepsy / Q000503:physiopathology; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008433:Mathematics; D008457:Measles / Q000453:epidemiology; D008954:Models, Biological; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D010507:Periodicity