title: Medical prognosis--some fundamentals.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The concept of prognosis as a prediction concerning the probable outcome of an attack of disease shows some severe contextual drawbacks in the everyday clinical sense. It is often used to describe possible outcomes of the disease in general, or the progression of a disease course, not the expected course in a particular case.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To render more discriminating uses of the term prognosis, in order to provide the prognosticating physician with a valid tool, comparable to the theoretical basis of diagnostic and therapeutic actions.
  
  
  METHODS
  Analysis and discussion of etymology, definition and practical usage.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Prognosis is not to be considered soothsaying, but forecasting on qualified grounds. Prognostic statements are announcements containing prognostic information. Prognostic factors are pieces of information associated with a specific outcome of disease, which can be utilized in the formulation of the prognosis. Prognostic estimates involve subjective probability and can be formulated by using frequencies along with (clinical) experience. A prognosis is a prediction of a particular future stage of disease, considering a single case--the prognosis is neither part of the patient, nor part of the disease.
authors.affiliation: University of Copenhagen, Unit of Medical Philosophy and Clinical Theory, Panum Institute, Denmark.
authors.forename: D A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Rizzi
mesh_terms: D003625:Data Collection; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D008037:Linguistics; D010820:Physicians; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome