title: A time-series analysis of trends in firearm-related homicide and suicide.
abstract: In order to determine whether firearm use was an increasing component of the general pattern of homicide in Cape Town, South Africa, hidden Markov time-series models were used to examine a week-by-week count of firearm homicides, non-firearm homicides, firearm suicides and non-firearm suicides for the 6-year period from 1986 to 1991. Of several models fitted to the proportion of homicides that involved firearms, the one which incorporated a discrete upward shift in the middle of 1991 was the most successful. There was no evidence of a similar upward shift in the proportion of the suicides that involved firearms. The sharp increase in 1991 in the probability that a homicide involved the use of a firearm is consistent with a reported upsurge in violence related to the so-called 'taxi wars'. Hidden Markov models, as a general methodology for the analysis of discrete-valued time series, may be a useful and flexible means of identifying time trends or points of transition related to events or interventions in a wide range of public health contexts.
authors.affiliation: Department of Business Science, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa.
authors.forename: I L
authors.initials: IL
authors.lastname: MacDonald
authors.forename: L B
authors.initials: LB
authors.lastname: Lerer
mesh_terms: D006708:Homicide / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D008390:Markov Chains; D013019:South Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D013405:Suicide / Q000639:trends*; D014948:Wounds, Gunshot / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality*