Effect of differential mortality on risk behavior change in cohort studies.
Recent theoretical work suggests that reductions in aggregate measures of risk behaviors are to be expected during a human immunodeficiency virus epidemic, because mortality is likely to be differential with respect to the level of the risk behavior. We present and apply a methodology for quantifying the effects of differential mortality on risk behavior changes in closed cohort studies. We demonstrate that differential mortality has caused 21% of the observed reduction in the mean, 29% of the observed reduction in the effective average, and 33% of the observed reduction in the variance of a risk behavior in a cohort of gay men.
Blower
S M
SM
Biomedical and Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley 94720.
van Griensven
G J
GJ
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000401:mortality*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D015438:Health Behavior; D006716:Homosexuality; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D012307:Risk Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis