title: [Prediction of needs in dialysis therapy].
abstract: Planning of future needs of Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT) Programme is frequently based on comparison of national data with data from other countries. Often, the dynamics of RRT development is disregarded and dialysis and transplantation assessed as separate entities, too. Such approach may lead to underestimation of present level of RRT availability and overestimation of immediate future needs. Transplantation activity and number of patients requiring dialysis are interrelated variables. Under steady state, their relation may be described as N = TX + U where N denotes incidence of chronic renal failure, TX transplantation activity, and U stands for mortality rate of dialysed population. Considering mortality rate equal to 10% of dialysed population (P), an equation describing the interrelation of transplantation activity and number of patients requiring dialysis may be devised: P = (N - TX)/0.1. This equation can be used to calculate target values of RRT programme. The time course of RRT needs to reach the target figures may be predicted from a simple differential equation dP/dT = N - 0.1. P - TX, taking into account dynamic character of this process.
authors.affiliation: Interní oddĕlení Fakultní nemocnice 2 s FP, a 1. LF UK, Praha.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Lopot
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bláha
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sulková
mesh_terms: D018153:Czech Republic / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007676:Kidney Failure, Chronic / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000628:therapy; D006435:Renal Dialysis / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*
vernacular_title: Predickce potreb dialyzacního lécení.