World and regional populations.
Non-linear regression indicates that the logistic model provides excellent fits to world and continental human population data of the period 1950-1985. If the present logistic regime persists, the world population is likely to double in 47 years. Moreover, the eventual world population would be close to its final value of 23.8 billion by the year 2200, with about 11 billion in Asia and 10.5 billion in Africa. An approximately 95% confidence interval for the eventual world population is found to be between 11.9 and 35.7 billion. The logistic estimates of future populations are much higher than those considered most likely by the United Nations.
Tuckwell
H C
HC
Statistics Research Section, Australian National University, Camberra.
Koziol
J A
JA
D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008954:Models, Biological; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D014480:United Nations