title: Diagnostic value of the bronchial provocation test with methacholine in asthma. A Bayesian analysis approach.
abstract: The Bayesian analysis was used in this study to investigate the diagnostic value of the bronchial provocation test with methacholine in patients with asthma. The best cutoff value of accumulated concentration of methacholine administered that caused a 20 percent fall in FEV1 post-saline (PC20) in our sample, determined with a receiver operator characteristic curve, was 15 mg/ml. The interval security of the test was established by a pretest probability between 0.16 and 0.87 and the best test results were obtained when pretest probability was 0.48. The positive final diagnostic gain of the test was maximal at this pretest probability. We conclude that the application of Bayes' theorem, considering the pretest probability of asthma and the sensitivity and specificity of the individual PC20 obtained, increases the accuracy of the bronchial provocation test with methacholine in the diagnosis of asthma.
authors.affiliation: Servicio de Neumología, Hospital Universitario, La Fe, Valencia, Spain.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Perpiñá
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Pellicer
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: de Diego
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Compte
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Macián
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001249:Asthma / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D001985:Bronchial Provocation Tests / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001991:Bronchitis / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000503:physiopathology; D002908:Chronic Disease; D005260:Female; D005541:Forced Expiratory Volume / Q000187:drug effects / Q000502:physiology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D016210:Methacholine Chloride / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000494:pharmacology; D008875:Middle Aged; D011336:Probability; D012372:ROC Curve; D012220:Rhinitis / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000503:physiopathology; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012907:Smoking
chemical_list: D016210:Methacholine Chloride