title: [Verification of tuberculosis prognosis in Poland to the year 2000].
abstract: In 1978 year a tuberculosis prognosis in Poland up to 2000 year was prepared in the Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases in Warsaw, according to epidemiological and epidemiologic-metric model (efficacy of "diagnosis-therapy program" from 60 to 90% and efficacy of BCG vaccination to 60%). The aim of study was to compare epidemiological data for registered tuberculosis cases in 1980-1990 (incidence morbidity and mortality) with the same parameters presented in prognosis for 1980-1991). Efficacy of analyzed programme was similar to predicted values: for incidence of tuberculosis-64%, for morbidity-65% and for mortality-66%.
authors.affiliation: Instytutu Gruźlicy i Chorób Płuc w Warszawie.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Olakowski
authors.forename: Z
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Piasecki
authors.forename: I
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Szczuka
mesh_terms: D001500:BCG Vaccine / Q000008:administration & dosage; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011044:Poland / Q000453:epidemiology; D011379:Prognosis; D015397:Program Evaluation / Q000639:trends*; D012042:Registries; D016019:Survival Analysis; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality / Q000517:prevention & control*
chemical_list: D001500:BCG Vaccine
vernacular_title: Weryfikacja prognozy gruźlicy w Polsce do 2000 roku.