The "deterministic simple epidemic" unmasked.
We derive a simple but surprising connection between the "deterministic epidemic with recovery" and the spatial birth-and-death process, and discuss its implications for the use of nonlinear differential equation models for the spatial spread of epidemics. This paper consists of a manuscript dating back to 1977, which has been widely referred to in the literature but not previously published, and its more recent extension to include recovery/death in the processes considered, with some additional comments. To aid reference, we retain the original title.
Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.
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Mollison
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Daniels
D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D003643:Death; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007743:Labor, Obstetric; D008433:Mathematics; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011247:Pregnancy; D011336:Probability