Caries risk assessment in a longitudinal discrimination study.
Our objective was to develop and perfect a model for the assessment of risk of dental caries onset in children. Even though dental caries prevalence in children is continuing to decline, there is still a significant minority for whom it is a problem. In this study, we sought to ascertain whether a set of variables selected in a previous cross-sectional study could be used to differentiate between caries-free six-year-olds who would or would not subsequently present with clinically-detectable caries. A total of 472 caries-free six-year-olds--286 from a fluoridated community and 186 from a fluoride-deficient community--was selected. Clinical examinations for DMFS, dental fluorosis, and plaque were conducted. Stimulated whole saliva was collected for analysis of mutants streptococci, lactobacilli, total viable flora, and fluoride, calcium, and phosphate concentrations. A questionnaire was used for collection of demographic data as well as information on prior fluoride exposure, dietary habits, and oral hygiene practices. By means of linear discriminant analyses, it was possible to predict correctly which children would develop caries within six to 12 months (sensitivity) in 82.8% of cases and which children would not develop caries during that period (specificity) in 82.4% of cases.
Department of Community Dentistry, Eastman Dental Center, Rochester, New York 14620.
D H
DH
Leverett
H M
HM
Proskin
J D
JD
Featherstone
S M
SM
Adair
A D
AD
Eisenberg
S A
SA
Mundorff-Shrestha
C P
CP
Shields
C L
CL
Shaffer
R J
RJ
Billings
D001031:Apatites / Q000032:analysis; D002130:Calcium Phosphates / Q000032:analysis; D002648:Child; D004245:DMF Index; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000453:epidemiology*; D003774:Dental Plaque Index; D016002:Discriminant Analysis; D017886:Durapatite; D005457:Fluoridation; D005459:Fluorides / Q000032:analysis / Q000627:therapeutic use; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D006882:Hydroxyapatites / Q000032:analysis; D007778:Lactobacillus / Q000302:isolation & purification; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009513:New Hampshire / Q000453:epidemiology; D009518:New York / Q000453:epidemiology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012307:Risk Factors; D012463:Saliva / Q000737:chemistry / Q000382:microbiology; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013295:Streptococcus mutans / Q000302:isolation & purification; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires
D001031:Apatites; D002130:Calcium Phosphates; D006882:Hydroxyapatites; C485828:alpha-tricalcium phosphate; C485830:tetracalcium phosphate; C485838:calcium phosphate, monobasic, anhydrous; D017886:Durapatite; C020243:calcium phosphate; C485829:calcium phosphate, dibasic, anhydrous; C025105:fluorapatite; D005459:Fluorides