A threshold limit theorem for a multitype epidemic model.
The asymptotic final size distribution of a multitype Martin-Löf process, a discrete-time SIR model for the spread of an infectious disease in a closed multitype population, is derived for the case of large total population size. When all subgroups are of comparable size and the infection pattern is irreducible, a threshold behavior is obtained, and the asymptomatic distributions for small and large outbreaks can be found. As an important corollary we get a threshold limit theorem for a class of continuous-time SIR models with several types.
Andersson
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Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Sweden.
D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D008433:Mathematics; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011156:Population Density